This week, Jeffrey Michael Kelly was arrested for shooting at the DNC office in Tempe, Arizona and charged with terroristic activity among others. He was found to have 120 guns, 250,000 rounds of ammunition, body armor, and a grenade launcher at his house, and law enforcement believed he may have been planning to commit a “mass casualty event.” Kelly also placed several anti-Democratic Party signs lined with razor blades and attached bags with white powder labeled “Biohazard.”
Kelly’s attack continues this year’s onslaught of political violence, including two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and arrests made for violent threats against Vice President Kamala Harris. This past weekend, a Texas man was arrested after punching a 69-year-old poll worker who asked him to remove his pro-Turmp merchandise while voting, a longstanding rule to ensure neutrality at polling stations. In another incident that went viral, a woman went on a crude tirade targeting a poll worker who asked her to remove her MAGA shirt. Police in Arizona, Oregon, and Washington are investigating ballot box fires started by incendiary devices. In Vancouver, Washington, hundreds of ballots were burned and 20 were damaged in Phoenix. According to a poll by Axios, Americans are already anticipating violence post-election, with 62 percent believing that violence is either “somewhat” or “very likely.”
The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism has researched 2020 online activity and compared it to what we’re seeing today. Once again, we are seeing the same warning signs of political violence based on election denialism combined with violent language across fringe platforms that we saw in the weeks before the 2020 election and before the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol. Online chatter on fringe platforms like Telegram, Gab, Communities.win, and the Fediverse are signaling a potential for political violence following the upcoming election. While in many cases the total number of messages on fringe sites is currently lower than in 2020, the percentage increase of violent rhetoric is still rising leading up to Election Day.
On Telegram, a platform favored by far-right extremists, violent rhetoric related to election denialism rose throughout October 2020, growing 317 percent over the month before skyrocketing another 1,628 percent the week of November 2, when the election took place. Following the election, a new, much higher baseline of violent political rhetoric emerged, with the average number of violent election denying posts in November and December being 1,415 percent higher than in October.
In 2020, violent election denialism on Telegram skyrocketed 1,415 percent in November compared to October (Source: GPAHE)
This year, a similar trend is developing on Telegram. Much like in 2020, violent rhetoric related to election denialism has risen 317 percent over the course of October 2024. Posts made on Telegram include using election denialism to justify an apparent “inevitable civil war” and a call to “Shoot to kill any illegal voters.” Throughout the year, Proud Boys online accounts, whose leader and members helped orchestrate the January 6, 2021 insurrection, have been calling for elected officials to be “arrested, tried for treason, and hanged,” and called for their supporters to “keep your rifles by your side.” Chat members in a Minnesota Proud Boys Telegram group are already endorsing real-world protests, such as one at the Minnesota State Capitol on November 2. The post advertising this rally calls on “patriots” to “take action” and “go to the streets.”
This year, election-related violent rhetoric on Telegram has seen spikes of over 300 percent during October, with the month not yet complete. (Source: GPAHE)
On Gab, a platform with a similar interface to Twitter, 2020 saw a 462 percent increase in violent election rhetoric during October, before rising a staggering 8,309 percent the week of the election. In the weeks following, the average number of instances was 2,730 percent higher than in October.
In 2020, Gab saw a monumental 8,309 percent increase in violent election denialism between the end of October and the week of the election. (Source: GPAHE)
Throughout October 2024, violent election denialism on Gab has so far risen 105 percent. Many posts threaten perceived election fraudsters with charges of treason, which they believe the punishment should be “either firing squad or the rope.” Others called for “public executions for all voter fraud,” calling “all voters” the “enemy,” and shooting elected officials, who they call “traitors,” to “remove them from office.” Other users invoked ideation of war, suggesting that “the Military needs to be brought in,” and that “if the Dems win the CHEAT AGAIN all hell will break out, even a Civil War.” In some cases, antisemitism drove election denialism, such as claiming that a “Jew…controls both candidates,” that “the Jew divided us,” and allegations that the supposed Zionist Occupied Government (ZOG) “will install Kamala through obvious voter fraud.”
This year, violent rhetoric on Gab has been steadily rising throughout October, with the month not yet complete, providing a worrying indication of the normalization of such rhetoric online and potential offline violence (Source: GPAHE)
On communities.win, a collection of forums that includes The_Donald, which was originally banned from Reddit for hate speech in 2020, violent election denialism rose 78 percent in October 2020. The week of November 2, instances rose another 1,894 percent. Throughout November and December, the average number of such posts was 941 percent higher than in October.
In 2020, communities.win saw an almost 2,000 percent increase in violent election denialism during the week of the election. (Source: GPAHE)
So far, over the month of October 2024, violent election denialism has risen 25 percent. Many messages fantasize about a Civil War breaking out, asserting that “under no circumstances do the [Dems] let go of power,” “there’s going to be a civil war, a revolution, or maybe both,” and needing a Civil War to fulfill “The Great Awakening,” which the QAnon conspiracy movement alleges will be led by Trump to dismantle the “deep state.” Others said “if it comes to [violence]…there are plenty of people who will get the job done,” and claimed they were “ready to go to war.
This year, violent rhetoric has seen a 25 percent rise throughout October, with the month not yet complete, on communities.win. (Source: GPAHE)
Data was not tracked in 2020 on the Fediverse, short for “federated universe,” which is a collection of community owned, ad-free, decentralized, and privacy-centric social networks. However, throughout October 2024, instances of violent election denialism rose 75 percent, indicating a similar and worrying trend towards explicitly violent online rhetoric. Users shared posts blaming the “liberal media” for inciting a “war,” which will go from “cold to hot.” Invocations of war were common, either blaming the “left” for creating the conditions for war, or encouraging it themselves.
On the Fediverse, violent election denialism has risen throughout October 2024, with the month not yet complete. (Source: GPAHE)
Following the 2020 election, unchecked extremism both online and offline contributed to the real world action of the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol building. With similar warning signs across social media platforms and multiple instances of political violence already occurring this year, ignoring these worrying trends will only risk further acts of violence related to election denialism and anti-democratic sentiment.
