On Wednesday, the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) released new data from a poll we commissioned from Edge Research which finds that Americans’ concerns about political violence, democratic participation, and safety at the polls remain alarmingly high, compared to our similar research in 2022, also ahead of the midterms.
The report and data can be found on our website here. And election of data points can be found at the end of this document.
The findings suggest that fears surrounding political violence and intimidation have become deeply embedded in the American political landscape, raising concerns about the impact on democratic participation and public trust. A third of Americans continue to be very worried about a violent attack on Election Day, intimidation while voting, and others carrying weapons at the polls. Eight in ten Americans believe political violence is a problem in the United States, and more Americans are worried about attacks by ICE than by extremist groups such as the racist Proud Boys or armed militias.
At the same time, confidence in democratic institutions remains low. Only 26% of Americans are very confident that elections are free and fair, indicating that the false election fraud narrative is taking root. 72% believe political leaders routinely mislead the public. Two-thirds say they no longer have meaningful political influence, and most expect significant disruption following the next presidential election, even another January 6.
Another simmering concern is possible extremist activity at polling places. More than 50% are at least somewhat worried about organized groups like the Proud Boys and armed militias showing up.
Sixty-nine percent of Americans believe that we are as or more divided as at the time of the Civil War. There is broad agreement that President Trump is to blame for creating division in our country. Fifty-two percent of those who believe we are divided blame Trump, up from 41% in 2022. And in a sharp change in the data, 19% of Republicans now blame President Trump for the division, up from 8% in 2022.
The research reveals a general unease among all Americans about the safety of participating in our democratic process. The growing normalization of violence, the constant attacks on the integrity of elections and our institutions, and rising fears of each other is creating an environment where Americans question where they sit in the democratic process and if they’re safe.
Young people as well as Black and Latino people feel the most afraid to participate in elections. Fifteen percent of respondents indicated that they feel nervous or afraid to vote. Among young people, that number jumps to 22 percent. For Black people and Latinos, 15% and 19% respectively are afraid to vote. If confronted with harassment at the polls, a significant number say they will leave without voting. This was especially true for young people (19%), Black people (21%) and Latinos (22%).
The data, separated by race, party, and age also uncovers fears about mass shootings and other forms of violence, extremist activity including from groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, and shows that more than 60% of Americans are nervous to participate in other parts of the democratic process, including attending rallies, opening their door to a canvasser, and even putting up a yard sign.
“These findings reveal a troubling reality: fear, distrust, and the threat of political violence are becoming normalized in American life. When large numbers of people feel unsafe voting, attending political events, or expressing their views, democracy itself is weakened. Public officials must take concrete steps to protect voters and restore confidence in our institutions,” said Wendy Via, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.
68% of Americans fully support banning guns within 100 feet of polling stations, including 62% of gun owners. Black and Latino Americans report their greatest fear is others carrying guns at the polls.
GPAHE sent a memo Wednesday to secretaries of states across the country, sharing the alarming data and recommending that states:
- Ban all weapons in and around polling places.
- Communicate early and clearly plans and assurances that the elections will be fair and honest.
- Use the authority of the secretary of state offices to counter any misinformation about the elections.
- Communicate to the public instructions for what a voter should do if intimidated or harassed.
- Reject any possible federal efforts to place ICE or other federal agents near the polls.
“The survey shows that Americans are not only worried about political violence—they are worried that intimidation, misinformation, and threats could shape the outcome of future elections. Strong support for measures like banning guns at polling places demonstrates that people want practical solutions that make participation in democracy safer and more secure for everyone,” said Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.
According to the survey, the fears surrounding elections and the democratic process are real and have the potential to suppress participation and infringe upon Americans’ right to vote. More data and findings available here.
“The warning signs are flashing red. Americans increasingly fear violence, distrust political leaders, and question whether elections will be respected. A democracy cannot thrive when citizens are afraid to vote, speak out, or participate in public life,” said Wendy Via, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.
Key Findings of the report
- 68% of Americans support banning guns at the polls, including 62% of gun owners
- 84% of Americans think political violence is a problem, with nearly half believing that it is a very big problem
- 33% of Americans are very worried about future attacks by ICE, more than they are about groups like the racist Proud Boys or armed militias
- 68% are nervous or afraid to engage in at least one of several acts of routine political expression
- 69% of Americans continue to feel that we are as or more divided as during the Civil War; of these 50% blame Trump, including a sharp increase in Republicans
- 72% of Americans believe politicians purposely mislead them with false or gross exaggerations, and nearly 2/3rds believe they no longer have political agency
- With only 26% of people being very confident that we have free and fair elections, the voter fraud narrative is eroding trust in neighbors and election officials
- Seven in ten Americans expect election disruptions, disputes over results, or even another January 6 style event after the next presidential election, particularly if a Democrat wins.
- Tragically, 70% of Gen Z feel less safe because of mass shootings
- 59% of Americans are concerned about voter fraud
- 76% of Americans believe political leaders primarily serve their own interests and those of their financial supporters rather than the public, highlighting a profound crisis of trust in government
