Americans are entering the next election cycle with deep fears about political violence, intimidation, and the future of democracy, according to a new national survey commissioned by the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) and conducted by Edge Research.
The findings reveal a country where many voters no longer view political unrest as a remote possibility but as an expected feature of American life. Eight in ten Americans believe political violence is a problem in the United States today, while seven in ten expect efforts to overturn results, or even another January 6-style attack following the next presidential election.
The survey paints a troubling picture of a nation where confidence in democratic institutions is declining and fears about participating in the political process remain widespread.
For many Americans, those concerns are tied to fears of real-world violence and intimidation. Majorities of Americans are concerned about weapons at polling places, violent attacks on election day, voter intimidation, harassment by activists, and the presence of militias or extremist groups near voting locations.
Perhaps most alarming, 15% of voters say they would leave without casting a ballot if they experienced or witnessed intimidation or harassment at a polling place. That figure rises to more than one in five Black and Latin voters.
The survey also suggests that political violence is becoming increasingly normalized. Younger Americans are significantly less likely than older generations to view acts of intimidation, voter suppression, or extremist symbolism as unacceptable, raising concerns that years of political conflict and online radicalization may be reshaping attitudes toward democratic norms. At the same time, Americans are losing faith in the institutions meant to protect those norms. Only 26% are very confident that elections in the United States are free and fair.
Beyond fears of extremist groups, respondents expressed significant concern about violence from a range of actors, including government authorities. One-third of Americans say they are very worried about future attacks by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a higher level of concern than reported for groups such as the white supremacist Proud Boys or anti-government militias. Among respondents from Black and Latino communities, seven in ten express concern about future attacks by ICE.
The findings point to a broader crisis of trust. Despite little evidence of widespread voter fraud, a majority of Americans remain concerned about it, highlighting how years of misinformation have undermined trust in the electoral process, election officials, and other voters.
The survey’s findings arrive at a moment when many Americans believe the country is approaching a dangerous political crossroads. Nearly seven in ten say the United States is as divided as, or more divided than, it was during the Civil War. For millions of Americans, fears about violence, intimidation, and democratic instability are no longer hypothetical concerns. They have become part of the calculation of whether it is safe to participate in public life, express political views, or even cast a vote.
