New GPAHE poll shows that Americans are more secure about their general physical safety than in 2022 but remain very concerned about safety at polling places; 8 in 10 Americans think political violence is a problem in the U.S.; more people are afraid of an ICE attack than they are of extremist groups
Key Findings
- 68% of Americans support banning guns at the polls, including 62% of gun owners
- 84% of Americans think political violence is a problem, with nearly half believing that it is a very big problem
- 33% of Americans are very worried about future attacks by ICE, more than they are about groups like the racist Proud Boys or armed militias
- 68% are nervous or afraid to engage in at least one of several acts of routine political expression
- 69% of Americans continue to feel that we are as or more divided as during the Civil War; of these 50% blame Trump, including a sharp increase in Republicans
- 72% of Americans believe politicians purposely mislead them with false or gross exaggerations, and nearly 2/3rds believe they no longer have political agency
- With only 26% of people being very confident that we have free and fair elections, the voter fraud narrative is eroding trust in neighbors and election officials
- 7 in10 Americans expect disruption, dispute of election results, and even another January 6th following the next presidential election, especially if a Democrat wins
New data from a poll commissioned by GPAHE and conducted by Edge Research shows that Americans are less afraid about their general safety than they were four years ago and two years ago, but their concerns about their political safety have increased. Mass shootings, political and racial divisions, and extremist rhetoric and violence all continue to take their toll on Americans’ sense of safety and security and their faith in our institutions and democracy.
Importantly, for every person who claims to feel very safe this year, there is a person who feels less safe than four years ago. Most significantly, these fears continue to cause Americans to be wary of involvement in the democratic process, including voting, as many have fears about polling places, the integrity of our elections, and violent attacks. Young people as well as Black and Latino people feel the most afraid to participate.
This new survey is a follow-up to polling GPAHE conducted ahead of the midterms in 2022. GPAHE wanted to measure the impact of growing extremist attacks on Americans sense of safety. We wanted to understand how, if at all, racially and politically motivated violence, extremist political rhetoric, and extremist group activity are affecting Americans’ willingness to participate in the democratic process. That survey uncovered pervasive nervousness about political participation among many voters, most especially young people and people of color. We also registered a growing concern about voter fraud that has been continuously stoked by some political leaders.
In 2026, we wanted to know how Americans are feeling going into the next national midterm elections and open some new lines of inquiry about election fraud and political violence. What if anything has changed for better or worse? What do Americans need to feel safe to exercise our most fundamental democratic right – the right to vote? The survey was conducted in March 2026, prior to the redistricting efforts across the country.
Safety: Personal Up, Political Down
In good news, a sense of personal safety is up. There is a significant increase in people’s feelings of safety in their daily lives, 64% versus 54% in 2022. People feel much better about going to the grocery store, a house of worship, or a movie theater. Unfortunately, only 27% feel safe attending a concert or festival, up slightly from 22% in 2022. Multiple factors certainly have influenced these changes, but it’s likely that the end of the Covid pandemic and its restrictions have contributed greatly. And while 28% feel safer than four years ago, 27% feel less safe. Black and Latino people, 57%, feel completely or very safe, while 68% of white people do.
Of those who feel less safe, mass shootings at 57% and general crime at 52% are the top two reasons, as would be expected, but continued political divisiveness is blamed by 51%, right behind crime. Tragically, 70% of Gen Z feel less safe because of mass shootings. And a third of respondents cite the cultural divides created by targeting specific groups as bad for the country. Another third, 31%, blame fear of extreme right-wing groups as a reason for feeling less safe, compared to 17% who named fear of extreme left-wing groups.
At times, the reasons for feeling less safe among age groups and races are striking. Racial divisions in our country are named as the reason by 45% of Black people and 47% of Latinos, but only 31% of white people. And police shootings of people of color have made 54% of Black people and 39% of Latinos feel less safe, while only 16% of white people felt less safe. And when it comes to the activities of right-wing extremist groups, the responses were about a third of African Americans, Latinos, and white people feeling less safe. This is compared to white people reporting fears of left-wing extremist groups at 26% versus Black and Latino people reporting at 4% and 6% respectively.
In political situations, only 48% of respondents feel completely safe going to their polling place, an increase from 41% in 2022. Worse, only 22% feel completely safe at events like political rallies and candidate forums, and only 17% feel completely safe attending a demonstration or protest. These numbers are alarming and speak to the lack of trust in our institutions and could be an indicator of significant unwillingness to participate in important aspects of our democratic processes.
In 2026, we find as much concern about the possible actions of federal law enforcement as we do about the actions of extremist groups. A disturbing number, 33% of Americans today say they are very worried about future violent attacks by ICE. This is more than groups like the white supremacist Proud Boys at 26% or armed militias at 27%. When looking at the numbers for all those who expressed very or some concern about future attacks, we see fears of racially motivated extremist groups, radicalized online individuals, and those with mental health issues all come in at 73%, and armed militias at 61%. ICE is still more of a concern than Proud Boys at 57% and 54% respectively. For fears about the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, each group had about the same response, with Latinos coming in a little higher. But when asked about an ICE attack, 70% of Black and Latino people reported being worried, while 49% of white people did so.
The Normalization of Violence
Some of the most troubling survey findings have to do with political harassment and political violence – the sheer number of people expressing fears, how people define harassment and violence, and the extent to which it can be justified. 84% of respondents said that political violence in America is at least somewhat of a problem today. This cuts across the political spectrum, with 91% of Democrats, 81% of Republicans, and 80% of Independents, staggering numbers. When breaking this down to those who think political violence is a very big problem, it’s 57% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, and 41% of Independents. More than half of Black and Latino people believe that political violence is a very big problem at 55% and 51% respectively.
While most people, 65%, say political violence is never justified, about a third disagree. Gen Z says political violence is never justified at only 51% and Millennials at 59%, compared to Gen X and Boomers at 65% and 79%. When asked if displaying symbols like swastikas, nooses, or burning crosses is an act of political harassment or intimidation or contributes to a climate of violence, only 45% of Gen Z and Millennials said yes. That is compared to 60% of Gen X and 74% of Boomers who find these actions unacceptable. And when asked if actually preventing people from voting at a polling place is unacceptable, the numbers are concerning: Gen Z at 44%, Millennials at 49% – less than half, while 61% of Gen X and 81% of Boomers said it was unacceptable.
There is a generational divide in tolerance for threatening or harassing behaviors. Older voters, especially Boomers, are paying more attention, are more concerned, and less likely to justify certain acts. Millennials and Gen Z are less likely to find various acts of threats and harassment as ‘unacceptable,’ possibly because for most of their young adult lives, they’ve never known anything else, especially on social media. And younger voters have not experienced or are not aware of the hard-fought efforts over decades to achieve equal voting rights and are possibly not aware that we are once again facing similar challenges.
Political Expression and Voting Day
Fear of political expression activities, like attending a rally, putting up a yard sign, speaking to a canvasser, attending a candidate forum, and even voting is slightly up in 2026, with 68% afraid or nervous to do at least one of these routine activities. These are activities that people should feel completely safe in doing as they are basic components of democratic participation. Gen Z expresses the most fear overall at 74%. While 15% of total respondents said they were afraid of voting, those numbers increase when looking at young people and people of color. Gen Z expresses fear at 22%, Latinos at 19%, and Black people at 15%. This year, respondents were asked how comfortable they feel discussing candidate choices with others. A third of Americans, 29%, are afraid or nervous to do so.
On election day, Americans are most worried about acts of violence, voter harassment, and fraud at their own polling places and across the country. More than 60% are worried about people carrying weapons at the polling place and a violent attack or shooting. 59% express fears about people being harassed at the polls, and 53% are afraid of ICE or the National Guard being deployed to monitor polling stations. The use of these agencies is clearly divisive, and a law enforcement presence at polling places can cause people to feel less safe, especially people of color.
Harassment of Black people and Latinos, intimidation from politically motivated poll workers, fear of right-wing extremists, militias showing up, Proud Boys as poll watchers, and people not being allowed to cast a vote all come in at more than 50% of respondents saying they’re fearful of these things on voting day. Differences in levels of fear by race continue. 63% of Latinos and 61% of Black people expressed a level of concern for voting day, while only 47% of white people did. Among the greatest fears for Black and Latino people is others carrying guns at the polls.
There is also evidence that the voter fraud narrative, of which there is essentially no evidence but which is being spread by certain politicians, is taking root: 59% say they are afraid of voter fraud at the elections.
In 2026, people are less likely than four years ago to contact the police or elections officials if they witness or experience intimidation or harassment at the polls, and only 30% are willing to speak up in the moment. Black people are the most likely to take action and Gen Z is the least likely.
Most concerning is that a full 15% of voters would leave without voting if they witnessed or experienced harassment or intimidation. That includes 21% of Black people and 22% of Latinos compared to 11% of white people. And 19% of Gen Z and 23% of Millennials would leave. This obviously presents a challenge at a time it’s imperative that young people are brought into the democratic process and their faith in the system is bolstered.
A Divided Nation; Election Disruption is Expected
At this moment, the political landscape of America seems to be one where acts of violence and unrest are expected. Furthermore, expectations of disruption, dispute of election results, and even the advent of another January 6th following the next presidential elections are high. Throughout the survey, people cited political and racial divides as areas of concern when it comes to fears and violence. When asked if our nation and people are as or more divided as we were at the Civil War, 69% said yes. The response was 68% four years ago.
And when those people were asked who or what was to blame for the divisions, the top answer was President Trump and the Republican party. The number has risen to 52% in 2026 from 41% in 2022. An 11-point increase. And it’s a 13-point difference to the next highest response of politicians who promote divisive issues.
Most significant are the changes in the Republican and Independent responses since 2022. Republicans reported a sharp increase from only 8% in 2022 to 19% in 2026 saying that Trump is to blame for the nation’s divided nature. And Independents went from 38% to 50% blaming Trump in 2026. Less surprising was the Democrats’ response citing Trump as the source of division at 77% over 70% in 2022. Equally interesting was the increase in the Republicans’ citation of religious fundamentalists as a source of division. In 2026, 13% of Republicans blamed religious fundamentalists as a source of division, a sharp increase over only 7% in 2022. Democrats and Independents saw a decrease in 2026, to 14% and 13%, now the same level as Republicans.
When asked about the next presidential election, 77% of respondents said that it is at least somewhat likely that the party that loses and/or its supporters will attempt to stop the certification of the results, falsify the election in some way, or engage in political violence to stop the new president from taking office. Respondents believed these actions are more likely to happen if a Democrat wins. When asked about the possibility of events like those on January 6, 2021, happening again, 71% thought it at least somewhat likely, especially if a Democrat wins.
Eroding Trust in Leaders and the Voting Process
Americans have negative opinions of political leaders and the functioning of our democracy. The specter of voter fraud looms high, undermining confidence in elections and political agency, especially among certain groups of young and non-white voters. Furthermore, it is undermining trust in both fellow Americans and the people who officiate elections.
An astonishing 76% of Americans believe political leaders mostly care about benefiting themselves and their financial contributors, not the country, and 72% of Americans believe that government leaders mislead people with gross exaggerations and falsehoods. Two-thirds of respondents say they have lost political agency. These are dismal numbers describing the state of trust in our elected officials and the system, numbers that can impact voters’ willingness to participate in elections. In better news, 67% of respondents believed that the U.S. system of democracy is the best form of government, giving us hope that trust between political figures and Americans can be rebuilt.
This lack of trust combined with the constant stoking of fears over nearly non-existent voter fraud is harming people’s faith in the system. 44% of Americans are not confident that our elections will be free and fair. Democrats are more resistant to the voter fraud narrative than Republicans and Independents with 67% of Democrats believing that there is little to no election fraud from individuals and 63% believing there is little to no fraud from election officials. This is in contrast to Republicans at 47% and 50% respectively and Independents at 45% and 43% respectively. Women, 48%, especially women under 35, 55%, are the least confident that no fraud is being committed by election officials.
Regionally, concern about fraud committed by individuals is highest in the Deep South in the deep red states of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. More than half, 53%, are not confident that there is little to no fraud from individuals, despite numerous studies to the contrary. The false idea that ineligible people vote at high rates has particularly taken root in these states.
Polling Place Security Fears, Banning Guns is Simple and Effective
While sense of personal safety in daily situations has improved since 2022, Americans are as concerned about harassment and intimidation at their own polling places as they are about it happening in general, making it imperative for Secretaries of State and election officials to address this issue. Concern over the possibility of something bad happening is leading to receptivity to a variety of unprecedented security measures that would make entering a polling place look like getting into a concert venue or living in an authoritarian state. But Americans do agree that firearms do not belong within 100 feet of polling places. 68% report that a ban on firearms at polling places would make them feel more safe when voting, including 62% of gun owners. We also saw that about 70% of Black and Latino people and 58% of white people report others carrying guns at the polls as being of concern.
Security and accurate elections were the top concerns about fair and safe elections, reflecting our current political environment. Worryingly, more than 60% of respondents say they believe that an unprecedented array of security measures would make them more safe. 73% are willing to have security cameras, 69% are willing to have local law enforcement present, 69% say regulations to stop voters lingering at the polls would make them more safe. The list goes on to include background checks on election workers, physical barriers, prohibiting cell phones, and security screenings. These are perhaps some of the most distressing numbers in the survey, indicating significant fears on the part of voters about the process of casting a vote—and reveal a willingness to give up their privacy or civil rights for a perceived sense of safety. This is also a hallmark of growing authoritarianism. In addition to giving up their own rights, these measures would impact other voters’ rights and possibly their willingness to participate in our democracy.
Methodology
Edge Research designed and conducted this nationwide survey of 1,552 US adults on behalf of Global Project Against Hate and Extremism. Data were collected March 9 – 19, 2026.  Survey respondents were recruited using an online, non-probability sample obtained via a national opt-in consumer research panel.  Respondents are not directly compensated for taking individual surveys however they accrue points as they participate in surveys which they can convert to compensation. Data were collected using the Forsta/Decipher survey platform. Edge Research follows American Association for Public Opinion Research best practices in data collection.
As respondents entered the survey, they submitted demographic information and quotas were set to ensure the sample would be demographically and geographically distributed in accordance with the most recent US Census Bureau population estimates. Quotas function by predetermining the number of desired respondents within each age, gender identity, state of residence, race and ethnicity category.  Once the desired number is reached with each quota group it closes and additional respondents are turned away.
Only surveys that were completed were included in the analysis.Â
GPAHE sent a memo on Wednesday, June 3, to secretaries of states across the country, sharing the alarming data and recommending that states:
- Ban all weapons in and around polling places.
- Communicate early and clearly plans and assurances that the elections will be fair and honest.
- Use the authority of the secretary of state offices to counter any misinformation about the elections.
- Communicate to the public instructions for what a voter should do if intimidated or harassed.
- Reject any possible federal efforts to place ICE or other federal agents near the polls.
